Let’s discuss GPU costs and this month’s replace may be very attention-grabbing due to two key elements: the primary, Nvidia simply launched new GeForce 40 sequence graphics playing cards; and second, GPU mining is now lifeless. We’re anticipating value motion to proceed all through the fourth quarter and all of it begins with these two developments which have main implications for the GPU market.

However have these elements had any influence out there but? Let’s discover out.

Nvidia’s new GPUs and graphics playing cards (examine this out for a full breakdown) are going to be costly. The GeForce RTX 4090 shall be $1,600 approaching October 12, adopted by the RTX 4080 16GB at $1,200 and RTX 4080 12GB at $900, each anticipated in November. These are premium priced merchandise that within the present market could be two of the three costliest GPUs you should buy.

In our RTX 40 launch evaluation we talked about how these new playing cards seem to offer an enchancment in value to efficiency ratio when in comparison with the RTX 30 sequence MSRPs. For instance, the RTX 4090 ought to be considerably sooner than the RTX 3090 whereas solely costing $100 extra.

Nonetheless, after we take a look at the present market, the place the RTX 3090 is promoting for under $1,000 – I do not suppose the MSRP for a two-year-old product is all that related proper now. It is also true a few of the value drops have are available in anticipation of newer technology GPUs.

“Moore’s Regulation is lifeless. (…) A 12-inch wafer is much more costly immediately. The concept that the chip goes to go down in value is a narrative of the previous” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in a current RTX 40 sequence launch Q&A

What Nvidia seems to have performed is pricing the RTX 40 sequence at roughly the identical price-to–performance stage as present merchandise. Proper now we have now the RTX 3090 Ti at round $1,000, RTX 3090 barely under that, RTX 3080 Ti round $800, and the RTX 3080 sequence across the $750 mark.

Based mostly on the efficiency numbers Nvidia confirmed, the RTX 40 sequence ought to slot proper into that present pricing construction, although after all we’ll have to attend for impartial evaluations to determine precisely the place they land.

This presents a novel scenario for current-gen graphics playing cards. If the RTX 40 sequence is not offering a considerable enhance in value to efficiency ratio, there may be much less incentive for older GPU costs to fall.

Is that this a deliberate technique from Nvidia to restrict losses from the excessive quantity of RTX 30 sequence stock left to be offered? By holding the RTX 30 sequence considerably enticing to patrons that may very well be the case, although at the price of weakening the hype and demand for the brand new sequence. It is a high quality line to tread and we’ll solely discover out in the event that they’re profitable within the weeks after launch.

Nvidia GPU Pricing

The query transferring ahead shall be how a lot influence the announcement of RTX 40 sequence GPUs can have on graphics card pricing. Based mostly on present knowledge (utilizing Newegg checklist pricing as typical), the launch has induced flagship GPU pricing to drop within the days main as much as the announcement.

Final month the RTX 3090 and 3090 Ti have been promoting for over $1,200, however now these playing cards are all the way down to ~$1,000, falling in value by over 20 p.c. Once we take a look at the value development for Nvidia GPUs since March 2022, that is one of many largest drops we have seen to date.

MSRP Lowest Worth July Lowest Worth August Lowest Worth September Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance Aug to Sept
GeForce RTX 3090 Ti $2,000 $1,470 $1,350 $1,030 -49% -24%
GeForce RTX 3090 $1,500 $1,270 $1,220 $960 -36% -21%
GeForce RTX 3080 Ti $1,200 $930 $870 $800 -33% -8%
GeForce RTX 3080 12GB n/a $740 $750 $750 n/a 0%
GeForce RTX 3080 10GB $700 $820 $730 $740 6% 1%
GeForce RTX 3070 Ti $600 $670 $620 $610 2% -2%
GeForce RTX 3070 $500 $530 $520 $500 0% -4%
GeForce RTX 3060 Ti $400 $470 $450 $420 5% -7%
GeForce RTX 3060 $330 $410 $380 $370 12% -3%
GeForce RTX 3050 $250 $330 $310 $275 10% -11%
Common -9% -8%

The RTX 3080 Ti has fallen by 8 p.c as effectively, the RTX 3080 sequence is flat, and the one different notable value declines have been for the RTX 3060 Ti and RTX 3050, although each nonetheless sit above their supposed MSRP. There hasn’t been a lot motion elsewhere throughout the remainder of Nvidia’s line-up. In actual fact, for playing cards priced under $800 — noting Nvidia did not announce any Ada Lovelace merchandise at or under that value — the modifications have been minor.

If we take a look at the long run pricing development for playing cards under $1,000, it has been comparatively flat or barely declining within the final three months for playing cards within the RTX 3070 tier and under. This possible responds to the prospects that Nvidia would not be releasing new mainstream stage GPUs — if there aren’t any new merchandise to reset value expectations, costs will most likely stay flat.

Though there’s nonetheless quite a lot of stock left to be offered, we expect the announcement of the RTX 40 sequence is unlikely to trigger an enormous value crash within the new GPU market past what has already occurred, significantly within the mid-range and decrease. Costs could hold falling slowly, however issues do not appear set for a major shake-up, at the least not till AMD pronounces RDNA 3 merchandise on November 3.

AMD GPU Pricing

Talking of AMD, has the RTX 40 sequence launch impacted pricing for Radeon RX 6000 GPUs? Not likely, at the least not past a gentle declining development for AMD GPU pricing.

A part of that is defined as a result of AMD would not have any GPUs priced above $1,000, and no playing cards price contemplating are priced above $700. Which means that nearly all of AMD’s line-up avoids the “influence zone” of the RTX 40 sequence, so we have not seen any drastic value cuts in response.

MSRP Lowest Worth July Lowest Worth August Lowest Worth September Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance Aug to Sept
Radeon 6950 XT $1,100 $1,020 $1,000 $950 -14% -5%
Radeon 6900 XT $1,000 $850 $700 $700 -30% 0%
Radeon 6800 XT $650 $690 $640 $560 -14% -13%
Radeon 6800 $580 $600 $600 $535 -8% -11%
Radeon 6750 XT $550 $515 $470 $410 -25% -13%
Radeon 6700 XT $480 $430 $395 $360 -25% -9%
Radeon 6650 XT $400 $350 $340 $280 -30% -18%
Radeon 6600 XT $380 $320 $300 $330 -13% 10%
Radeon 6600 $330 $260 $250 $230 -30% -8%
Radeon 6500 XT $200 $175 $170 $170 -15% 0%
Radeon 6400 $160 $135 $135 $135 -16% 0%
Common -20% -7%

What’s spectacular with AMD GPUs is that just about the entire line-up continues to fall at tempo, relative to the extra minor drops on the Nvidia facet.

Radeon graphics playing cards just like the RX 6700 XT, RX 6650 XT and RX 6600 all fell in value by 10 p.c or extra month over month, plus we noticed over 10 p.c drops for the 6800 sequence whereas the RTX 3080 sat flat. A value enhance for the Radeon 6600 did damage AMD’s common efficiency – although in apply the 6650 XT is taking its place for now.

When taking a look at total value development for Radeon GPUs, the most important drops occurred earlier than Could. Nonetheless after we take a look at the sub $600 market extra carefully, the place most of AMD’s playing cards sit, we are able to see a gentle decline for some fashions that continues to today.

For instance, the Radeon RX 6700 XT has dropped from $600 in March to simply $360 immediately, a 40% value discount. In distinction, Nvidia’s RTX 3060 Ti which was $630 in March, is $420 immediately, a 33% discount. We additionally see the RX 6600 dropping from $400 in March to $230 immediately (a 43% drop) in comparison with the GeForce RTX 3050 going from $390 to $275 immediately (a 30% drop).

GeForce vs Radeon Worth Factors

Do you have to purchase a brand new GPU proper now? Definitely not on the excessive finish, which has been our advice for a while. Costs haven’t come down far sufficient to make these merchandise enticing, regardless that Nvidia simply revealed fairly costly new GPUs. We’re additionally a month away from AMD’s RDNA3 reveal, so shopping for one thing proper now with out the complete image of subsequent technology playing cards is not a smart thought. Now’s completely the time to attend…

Nvidia GPU Worth AMD GPU
GeForce RTX 3090 Ti $1,000
GeForce RTX 3090 $950 Radeon RX 6950 XT
$900
$850
GeForce RTX 3080 Ti $800
GeForce RTX 3080 $750
$700 Radeon RX 6900 XT
GeForce RTX 3070 Ti $600
$550 Radeon RX 6800 XT / RX 6800
GeForce RTX 3070 $500
$450
GeForce RTX 3060 Ti $400 Radeon RX 6750 XT
GeForce RTX 3060 $350 Radeon RX 6700 XT
GeForce RTX 3050 $300 Radeon RX 6650 XT / RX 6600 XT
$250 Radeon RX 6600
$200 Radeon RX 6500 XT
GeForce GTX 1630 $150 Radeon RX 6400

We additionally advocate ready in case you’re concerned with a lower-tier card regardless of costs falling for a few of AMD’s merchandise. We’re not anticipating vital value drops over the subsequent month or two in response to new GPU bulletins as these will nearly actually be for dearer fashions, however we additionally do not see a threat of costs going up within the mainstream market. With that and the complete bulletins made forward of the vacations we are able to hope with fingers crossed that there is a bigger value correction throughout the whole graphics market.

One other main shake-up that we’re all ready for is the inflow of used GPUs to flood the market. This has been talked about for months as the large issue set to crater GPU pricing, and all of it facilities across the transition of Ethereum from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. That transition (a.okay.a. The Merge) occurred per week in the past and has completely killed mining for that cryptocurrency. The stream on impact has been the entire destruction of mining profitability on shopper GPUs throughout the whole cryptocurrency area.

There was at all times a threat that after The Merge, one other cryptocurrency might take the place of Ethereum because the go-to selection for miners and stuffed that void. Nonetheless, based mostly on knowledge from Whattomine, that hasn’t occurred. They monitor an enormous quantity of cash and present knowledge based mostly on common electrical energy pricing for the US means that it is at present unprofitable to mine on each single obtainable GPU.

… based mostly on common electrical energy pricing for the US, knowledge means that it is at present unprofitable to mine on each single obtainable GPU (proper now)

And by unprofitable we imply folks mining these cash are shedding a number of cents each 24 hours and can proceed to lose cash doing so. Time to throw a celebration as a result of mining is formally lifeless.

With these great information, all these GPUs at present devoted to crypto mining are actually ineffective and the presumption is these used playing cards will flood the market sooner or later. We’re speaking a a few large quantity of GPUs right here, based mostly on the entire quantity of energy that was occupied for mining. However per week post-Merge, has this flood of GPUs begun, or perhaps a trace of it?

some knowledge we captured evaluating used costs on eBay for present technology GPUs earlier than and after the Merge, it would not seem as if we’re seeing an enormous value influence simply but.

Whereas the value of some fashions did fall by over 10 p.c, the market common decline month on month was 8 p.c, just like the 7 p.c within the new market, which itself is fairly just like the value drops throughout the previous couple of months.

The complete weight of used mining playing cards just isn’t having an influence but, and gross sales quantity would not seem to have jumped considerably both. This might make sense because it’s solely been per week and it’d take some time for quantity of mining playing cards to be decommissioned and offered, or so we hope.

Used GPU Pricing

How a lot cash are you saving going for a used GPU over a brand new GPU? Proper now we’re taking a look at an ~8 p.c low cost on the low finish, to a 31 p.c low cost on the high-end. On common, used GPUs purchased via eBay are 17 p.c cheaper than shopping for them new at Newegg — or when flipping that round — it’ll price you 21% extra to get a brand new mannequin.

We’re to listen to your ideas on whether or not that is sufficient of a reduction to go used. Personally, it would not really feel like sufficient to me, even much less so if we’ll possible see that form of value drop within the new market inside 2 to three months.

MSRP eBay Common Worth July eBay Common Worth August eBay Common Worth September Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance Aug to Sept
GeForce RTX 2080 Ti $1,000 $510 $503 $479 -52% -5%
GeForce RTX 2080 Tremendous $700 $386 $357 $328 -53% -8%
GeForce RTX 2080 $700 $332 $339 $294 -58% -13%
GeForce RTX 2070 Tremendous $500 $325 $300 $281 -44% -6%
GeForce RTX 2070 $500 $292 $261 $256 -49% -2%
GeForce RTX 2060 Tremendous $400 $275 $253 $230 -42% -9%
GeForce RTX 2060 $350 $228 $214 $191 -45% -10%
Common -49% -8%

Once we take a look at older used GPUs just like the GeForce 20 sequence, it is a fairly comparable story with a constant value discount month over month.

If we check out the information we have been capturing for the previous yr, it is an attention-grabbing story with pricing peaking within the fourth quarter of 2021 earlier than dropping drastically after that time. Most GPUs have greater than halved in value in that interval, though we have but to see an enormous drop from a flood of used merchandise.

MSRP eBay Common Worth July eBay Common Worth August eBay Common Worth September Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance Aug to Sept
GeForce GTX 1660 Ti $280 $173 $175 $156 -44% -11%
GeForce GTX 1660 Tremendous $230 $171 $174 $137 -40% -21%
GeForce GTX 1660 $220 $157 $151 $128 -42% -15%
GeForce GTX 1650 Tremendous $160 $145 $143 $119 -25% -17%
GeForce GTX 1650 $150 $145 $136 $118 -21% -13%
Common -35% -16%

The GeForce 16 sequence noticed extra substantial value drops this month, 16% on common, though that is possible a correction to no value drop final month.

A number of these merchandise are genuinely low cost in the intervening time and whereas they do not assist fashionable options like DLSS, we would say that something here’s a higher choice that what you will discover for lower than $160 on the brand new market.

MSRP eBay Common Worth July eBay Common Worth August eBay Common Worth September Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance Aug to Sept
GeForce GTX 1080 Ti $700 $295 $285 $258 -63% -10%
GeForce GTX 1080 $600 $205 $184 $169 -72% -8%
GeForce GTX 1070 Ti $450 $192 $183 $164 -64% -10%
GeForce GTX 1070 $380 $154 $160 $135 -65% -16%
GeForce GTX 1060 6GB $250 $131 $116 $120 -52% 3%
GeForce GTX 1060 3GB $200 $113 $95 $91 -54% -4%
Common -62% -7%

Pascal-era playing cards are additionally ~7 cheaper month on month, which is in step with present pricing tendencies. This knowledge is most helpful for folks trying to promote their card in the intervening time, as we would not advocate anybody purchase a card this previous in 2022.

MSRP eBay Common Worth July eBay Common Worth August eBay Common Worth September Present Worth Inflation Worth Enhance Aug to Sept
Radeon 5700 XT $400 $284 $269 $193 -52% -28%
Radeon 5700 $350 $245 $264 $186 -47% -30%
Radeon 5600 XT $280 $187 $193 $168 -40% -13%
Radeon 5500 XT 8GB $200 $168 $173 $141 -30% -19%
Common -42% -22%

There may be some proof of the dying of mining impacting used AMD GPUs from the Radeon RX 5000 sequence. The RX 5700 XT and RX 5700 are massively discounted this month, a 30 p.c value drop, with these playing cards being nearly solely utilized by miners as a consequence of their wonderful performance-value.

Wanting on the value development during the last yr, after a number of months of extra modest declines, we’re again to a sharper decline for the 5700 sequence. It is wild to suppose that final November the 5700 XT was going for $1,000 used and now it may be discovered for lower than $200.

Different blended outcomes for older AMD merchandise embody a big value drop for the Radeon RX 580 8GB, which was additionally a favourite amongst miners. Hopefully a few of these massive value drops for particular fashions will divulge heart’s contents to larger decreases throughout the entire vary within the subsequent month or two.

Wrap Up

Definitely it is nonetheless too quickly for vital value motion to occur based mostly on the launch of Nvidia’s next-gen GPUs and the dying of crypto mining, however costs proceed to fall at a gentle tempo throughout new and used GPUs. There does seem like a scenario of provide outstripping demand, too, at the least the subsequent couple of minutes.

There are some hints {that a} flood of used GPUs is starting to go in direction of varied marketplaces, like we noticed for a few of these older AMD GPUs, so this can be an indication of what is to return. The complete quantity of mining playing cards do not seem like in the marketplace but, after per week after Ethereum’s Merge, nevertheless it should occur sooner or later.

In fact, some graphics playing cards devoted to mining have already been offered in months prior, in anticipation of mining ceasing to be worthwhile, although there’s nonetheless an enormous backlog to work via.

It ought to be very attention-grabbing to revisit this in a month and see how issues have progressed additional, after which once more in mid to late November after the announcement of AMD’s RDNA3 GPUs. There are nonetheless many issues to play out within the remaining months of 2022 and all of them recommend enhancements for patrons. So maintain out in case you can and see what’s in retailer.

Procuring Shortcuts:
  • AMD Radeon RX 6600 XT on Amazon
  • Nvidia GeForce RTX 3080 on Amazon
  • Nvidia GeForce RTX 3070 Ti on Amazon
  • AMD Radeon RX 6800 on Amazon
  • Nvidia GeForce RTX 3060 on Amazon
  • AMD Ryzen 7 5800X3D on Amazon

GPU Mining Is Useless, The place Are My Low-cost GPUs?

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